In the fertile plains of Tando Allahyar, Sindh, where cotton fields once stretched like white seas under the sun, farmers are facing a grim reality in 2025. The Indus River, long the backbone of agriculture, is running low, leaving fields parched and cotton crops struggling. Water shortages across Pakistan are disrupting sowing schedules, slashing yields, and pushing the textile industry to rely on imports. This crisis is reshaping life for farming communities and threatening the nation’s economy. Here’s how water scarcity is hitting cotton production hard.
Cotton sowing in Sindh and Punjab typically begins in March or April, when fields are prepped and irrigation channels flow. This year, however, severe water shortages have upended these plans. With dams like Tarbela and Mangla at critically low levels and a 50% water shortfall reported at Sukkur Barrage [1], many farmers couldn’t irrigate on time. Planting was delayed, with some fields not sown until May. The Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association targeted 9 million bales for the 2025/26 season [2], but current trends suggest a significant shortfall. Late sowing weakens plants and cuts yields, leaving farming communities with smaller harvests.
Sanghar, the top cotton-producing district in Sindh, is bearing the brunt. Known for its vast fields, Sanghar usually leads the province’s cotton output. By April 2025, only 26.71% of the sowing target (168,000 hectares out of 630,000 hectares)—a partial tally—was achieved in Sindh, with Sanghar lagging due to water scarcity [1]. Compared to recent years, sowing has dropped: in 2024, Sanghar planted 85% of its target; in 2023, 90%; and in 2022, 92% [4]. The 2020–2021 average was around 88% [4]. This year’s shortfall reflects the Indus’s dwindling flow, hitting Sanghar’s prime lands hardest.
Late planting makes cotton crops vulnerable to Pakistan’s unpredictable monsoons. Normally, July rains nourish cotton, but delayed sowing means plants are still young when heavy showers arrive. In 2025, erratic monsoons—marked by a 55% rainfall deficit in January [5]—have been disastrous. Flooding has waterlogged fields in Sindh, destroying young cotton plants, while germination rates have plummeted. Communities in Hyderabad and Sanghar have seen fields turn to mud, with seedlings lost. Early sowing could mitigate these risks, but water shortages leave farmers exposed.
Pakistan, the world’s fifth-largest cotton producer, relies on its cotton to fuel a massive textile industry. Water shortages are forcing a shift. With production faltering, the country is set to import more cotton in 2025 to meet the textile sector’s 2.3 million-ton demand (estimate) [6]. Imports from Brazil and the U.S. are driving up costs, squeezing local markets. This dependency hits farmers hardest, especially in Sanghar.
The water crisis is slashing cotton yields. Severe shortages, high temperatures, and poor seed quality are projected to keep 2025/26 production below targets (estimate) [2]. After the 2022 floods dropped output to 4.8 million bales [1], hopes for recovery have faded. In Sindh and Punjab, which produce 99% of Pakistan’s cotton [4], the Indus’s flow—hit by new canal projects and dry spells, has left fields dry. Pests like pink bollworms are adding to the toll.
|
Year |
Bales Produced (Million, 480-lb) |
Average Rate (PKR/40kg) |
Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2022/23 |
4.8 |
18,500 |
Post-flood low |
|
2023/24 |
8.35 |
20,000 |
Partial recovery |
|
2024/25 |
5.51 |
21,005 |
33.52% drop due to weather |
|
2025/26 |
5.5 (estimate) |
~22,000 (estimate) |
6% increase, still below target |
Data sourced from [2] and [5].
Efforts are underway to support farmers:
Drought-Tolerant Varieties: Heat-resistant seeds are being tested to boost resilience [2].
Drip Irrigation: Water-saving systems are gaining traction, though costs limit access.
Early Sowing Strategies: February planting could dodge monsoons, but water access is key.
Policy Advocacy: Fair water distribution and 1991 Water Accord enforcement are vital.
National Strategy: A robust national plan, backed by agri research, can support kharif crops like cotton with subsidies and innovation.
Scaling these requires government commitment.
The cotton crisis affects all—higher textile prices, fewer jobs, a strained economy. Supporting farmers, conserving water, and pushing for sustainable policies can turn the tide. Pakistan’s fields need collective action now.
[1] Dawn – “Cotton growers seek concessions as water shortages hit crop,” Mar 24, 2025.
[2] USDA – “Pakistan: Cotton and Products Annual,” Mar 26, 2025.
[3] USDA – “Pakistan: Cotton and Products Update,” Aug 20, 2024.
[4] Nation – “Pakistan’s cotton crisis deepens as record imports undermine local production,” Feb 14, 2025.
[5] CropGPT – “Analyzing the Highs and Lows of 2024/25 Cotton Season in Pakistan,” Mar 4, 2025.
[6] Arab News – “Pakistan cotton imports set to surge as climate change hits,” Mar 12, 2025.
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